Contribución marginal de las estadísticas del juego a la probabilidad de jugar los playoffs en las ligas de baloncesto de élite
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12800/ccd.v16i49.1586Keywords:
Basketball, performance analysis, game-related statistics, sport analytics.Abstract
La aplicación del análisis multinivel de efectos mixtos logísticos ordinales se muestra como una herramienta de apoyo a la gestión del baloncesto para identificar las estadísticas de juego que discriminan la posición final en la clasificación en temporada regular. Se tomaron datos de 10684 partidos que abarcan 10 temporadas y alcanzan la muestra de 752 casos de las dos principales ligas españolas (masculino y femenino). El análisis multinivel aplicado, identifica los efectos marginales de principales variables evaluadas por los entrenadores de baloncesto, que pueden ayudarles a mejorar el rendimiento de sus equipos. Los resultados muestran que, para los equipos localizados en la zona de descenso, la contribución marginal de los porcentajes de tiros de campo, rebote defensivo, robos y pérdidas de balón fue de 8,3 puntos porcentuales (pp), 7 pp, 9,6 pp y 8,6 pp respectivamente, mayor que en los equipos en zona de Play-off (p <0,01). El modelo aplicado aporta una contribución significativa a la literatura al identificar una metodología que puede extenderse directamente para una evaluación en el puesto clasificatorio de los equipos, ayudando de esta manera a los entrenadores a tomar decisiones importantes, como discriminar jerárquicamente qué factores son los más relevantes, tanto para evitar la zona de descenso y acceder a la zona de playoff.
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