Marginal contribution of game statistics to probability of playing playoff at elite basketball leagues



Palabras clave:

Basketball, performance analysis, game-related statistics, sport analytics.


The multilevel ordinal logistic mixed-effects method applied is proposed as a support tool to management in basketball teams helping to identify the game-related statistics that discriminate the final ranking in a regular season classification. A sample of 10684 games that cover 10 seasons and reach sample of 752 cases were evaluated from the two main Spanish basketball leagues (male and female). The multilevel analysis applied identifies the marginal effects of the main variables regularly evaluated by coaches and managers in basketball leagues, which may help them improve the performance of their teams. The results revealed that in Relegation zone the marginal contribution of field shots, defensive rebound, steals and turnovers percentage are 8.3 percentage points (pp), 7 pp, 9.6 pp and 8.6 pp respectively, higher than in Play-off zone (p<0.01). The model applied in this study make a significant contribution to the literature by identifying a methodology that can be straightforwardly extended for an assessment at the ranking of teams helping coaches in making important decisions such as hierarchically discriminating which factors are the most relevant in their league, both to avoid the relegation zone and to access the promotion zone.

Biografía del autor/a

José María Izquierdo, Universidad de León

José María Izquierdo Velasco currently works at the Faculty of Physical Activity and Sports Sciences, Universidad de León. José does research in Training Sciences, Athletic Performance and Tactical & Scout Analysis in team sports. Their current project is 'Strength training'.

Luis Enrique Pedauga, Universidad de León

Department of Economics and Statistics

Ana Pardo, Universidad de León

Department of Economics and Statistics

Juan Carlos Redondo, Universidad de León

Department of Physical Education and Sports


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Cómo citar

Izquierdo, J. M., Pedauga, L. E., Pardo, A., & Redondo, J. C. (2021). Marginal contribution of game statistics to probability of playing playoff at elite basketball leagues. Cultura, Ciencia Y Deporte, 16(49).



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