How are goals born? External and internal factors in European soccer

Abstract

This research studied by means of linear regression models which are the factors that most influence the achievement of points and goals in eight European leagues in the 2019-2020 season. To analyze the points obtained, external variables were taken into account, such as budget, stadium attendance, squad experience, sportsmanship, or whether the players are foreign, national, home-grown or belong to an international team. For goals, internal or match-specific variables were used, such as shots, scoring chances, corner kicks, number of cards, fouls, ball possession, dribbles, tackles, presence or absence of spectators and the pitch factor. The results revealed the importance of budget and sportsmanship, as well as scoring chances and shots. The presence of the public and the field factor had hardly any influence. The external factors show regression models with an adjusted R² between 0.508 and 0.916, while the internal factors range between 0.289 and 0.464. The data may be of relevance for improving transfer investment strategies, as well as for increasing the performance of training sessions, tactics and lineups.